Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 21.523517 24.504867 27.719461 31.439522 35.622246 40.176096 45.505869
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.137528 21.177186 25.867709 31.701713 38.748118 46.968021 57.267344
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 14.887830 19.387224 24.863748 31.992886 40.998514 51.964281 66.294334
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.914873 17.624575 23.602810 31.705384 42.352640 55.812966 74.058720
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.624986 16.519010 22.959656 31.995690 44.275387 60.300841 82.704935
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.822632 15.948461 22.916159 32.997722 47.113578 66.060695 93.280187
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.726901 14.838649 22.004073 32.678396 48.050386 69.234873 100.452508
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 8.402326 13.259862 20.276373 31.029489 46.942538 69.437925 103.408301
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 7.927213 12.888297 20.245372 31.803169 49.317288 74.628464 113.668057
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.521545 12.578537 20.266511 32.629137 51.784249 80.044405 124.501191
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.922405 11.906124 19.671966 32.451493 52.692006 83.166147 132.043169
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.323595 11.178640 18.928157 31.970246 53.070612 85.468767 138.410385
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.873064 10.669660 18.511048 32.004402 54.298156 89.196345 147.278081
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.551618 10.352834 18.382980 32.496814 56.285376 94.210872 158.433343
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.213282 9.973456 18.114129 32.719832 57.817995 98.545328 168.674080
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.822954 9.465622 17.583740 32.450628 58.492743 101.498518 176.782972
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.558964 9.164904 17.388269 32.739221 60.114735 106.064690 187.744483
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 4.427249 9.100245 17.605501 33.765713 63.062653 112.978172 202.960509
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 4.111530 8.654810 17.095749 33.438554 63.589345 115.780164 211.271326
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 3.643252 7.868830 15.895490 31.754038 61.565499 114.051286 211.616451
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 3.529028 7.784018 16.014039 32.544484 64.095839 120.412823 226.449702
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 3.427429 7.716173 16.158517 33.388451 66.762954 127.129013 242.202015
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 3.214969 7.398116 15.788642 33.206936 67.479158 130.347404 251.768921